AI engineering glossary · Time series recsys
What is seasonal naive forecast?
Seasonal naive forecast: A baseline that predicts each value as the value from the same point in the previous season. It is a strong benchmark for data with clear repeating patterns. Beating it is a minimum requirement for any seasonal model, and it needs no fitting.
Seasonal naive forecast: an example
For Monday's demand, use last Monday's demand.
Related terms
More Time series recsys terms
- Seasonality
- Sequential recommendation
- Serendipity
- Session-based recommendation
- Stationarity
- STL decomposition
- Strict stationarity
- Structural break
Where you learn it
Seasonal naive forecast is part of the AI Engineering Program, which teaches it with notes, a hands-on lab and an exam. The first lesson is free.