AI engineering glossary · Time series recsys
What is naive forecast?
Naive forecast: The simplest forecast: predict that the next value equals the last observed one. It is the baseline any serious method must beat, and is surprisingly hard to beat on random-walk-like series.
Naive forecast: an example
If today's demand was 480 units, the naive forecast for tomorrow is 480.
Related terms
More Time series recsys terms
- Novelty
- Pairwise ranking
- Partial autocorrelation function
- PatchTST
- Pointwise ranking
- Popularity bias
- Prediction interval
- Probabilistic forecasting
Where you learn it
Naive forecast is part of the AI Engineering Program, which teaches it with notes, a hands-on lab and an exam. The first lesson is free.