AI engineering glossary · Time series recsys
What is probabilistic forecasting?
Probabilistic forecasting: Producing a full probability distribution or set of quantiles for future values rather than a single number. It tells decision-makers how uncertain the outlook is, which matters for inventory, energy and risk.
Probabilistic forecasting: an example
Instead of 'demand will be 500', output that demand has a 10 percent chance of exceeding 620.
Related terms
More Time series recsys terms
- Prophet
- Quantile forecast
- Random walk
- Ranking stage
- RankNet
- Re-ranking stage
- Recommender system
- Recursive forecasting
Where you learn it
Probabilistic forecasting is part of the AI Engineering Program, which teaches it with notes, a hands-on lab and an exam. The first lesson is free.