AI engineering glossary · Evaluation metrics
What is CRPS (continuous ranked probability score)?
Continuous ranked probability score (also called CRPS): A measure of how good a full probabilistic forecast is, comparing the predicted cumulative distribution to the single value that occurred. Lower is better. It generalises mean absolute error to distributions, and for a single-number forecast it reduces to the absolute error.
Continuous ranked probability score: an example
Two weather models both centre on 30 degrees C, but the one whose forecast distribution is narrower and correct gets the lower CRPS when the actual temperature is 31.
Related terms
More Evaluation metrics terms
- Cost matrix
- Cranfield paradigm
- Cumulative gains chart
- Davies-Bouldin index
- Diagnostic odds ratio
- Discounted cumulative gain
- Dunn index
- Error analysis
Where you learn it
Continuous ranked probability score is part of the AI Engineering Program, which teaches it with notes, a hands-on lab and an exam. The first lesson is free.